Updated Monday 3:45 p.m.
Mother Nature managed to thwart one tenet of Seattle November weather, but it won't be able to thwart a second one.
November 19th is statistically the wettest day of the year in Seattle. It's rained on 91 of the past 123 years on this date - but not today. Rare sunshine instead.
We'll stay dry for about the next 36 hours until Thanksgiving approaches and that second November tenet: It's always stormy on Thanksgiving.
We look to check that box...
Tonight will be mostly clear for much of the night, with some areas of patchy fog late. Lows will drop into the upper 20s in the outlying areas to mid-upper 30s in Seattle.
An approaching front is the sacrificial lamb to destroy the current ridge of high pressure. We'll see some high clouds at times Tuesday, but the ridge will slow down and begin to tear apart the front as it approaches meaning it'll remain dry with highs in the low 50s.
What's left of the front comes in on Wednesday for some period of light rain, but nothing special. Highs will still reach around the low 50s.
But while that first front won't do much in the rain department, it'll clear the way for a stronger front coming in on Thanksgiving. Expect a rainy Thursday, then breezy-to-windy Thursday night/early Friday morning (some forecast models are suggesting 40-50 mph winds along the coast and Northwest Interior) leading to a cool, blustery, showery Black Friday. Highs Thursday will be around 50, dropping to just the upper 40s on Friday.
That means a snow level around 3,500 feet Thursday night and then down to 3,000 feet Friday which means we are looking at our first decent pass level snow of the season -- including Snoqualmie. I know a lot of people might be trying to get east for the Apple Cup Friday after Thanksgiving but it could be kinda dicey in the mountains. Keep an eye to the forecasts there.
Forecast models are differing on the rest of Thanksgiving weekend, debating between drier weather or keeping it cool and showery. We're going to lean with just a few showers for now, but trends are looking promising for drier weather. Highs will stay in the upper 40s to near 50.
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Today's Record Temperatures